Today the season ends so it seems only fitting that I’ve procrastinated the writing of this until now… Hey, at least it makes me feel better…
So the Redskins had a pretty awesome season. It was actually fun to watch them week after week. After years of spending far too much time and money on the team, I decided to stop going to games until things turned around. I think they have, and might head back to the stadium next year. Yes, RG3 is broken. No, he probably won’t be the same. Yes, the coaches are to blame. Yes, so is RG3. Given modern technology and the guy’s outlook, I think we’ll have him leading the way for at least a few more years. Maybe a step slower, but the guy can throw better than most too.
It was an equally successful season in fantasy for me.
I went against my better judgement and joined a second league, which was an organizational nightmare, and didn’t go too well. I wasn’t too negative on points, but ended with a horrible record. Luckily, I turned it around in the playoffs and finished respectably. I digress, that league is over, I won’t be playing in it again, and let’s talk about what went right instead.
Oh wait, before that I should mention I joined a survivor pick’em league and completely forgot about it after week 1 until around week 8. Needless to say, I had been eliminated 😛
Okay, for real onto the good…
The DouchecanoeToYouToo’s entered the season as a clear favorite, bringing back Arian Foster in the 3rd round and Rob Gronkowski in the 5th. The team played strong throughout (always 3rd or above) and finished 1st at the end of the regular season thanks to the first place team dropping a handful straight after going undefeated, and despite several guys not playing up to par (MJD was my 1st rounder and stunk, Hakeem Nicks was 2nd round and was hurt the entire season, and Gronk was on and off the field all year as well, but did amazing things ). Where I really made up for those injuries was with picking up RG3 in the 4th round, Michael Crabtree in the 10th, and grabbing Alfred Morris and Cecil Shorts off the waiver wire. Also helpful was going 2-0 in games decided by less than a point, one of which was decided on the final play of MNF and the other which was decided by a scoring correction later in the week… Things really went right.
I knew I was in trouble in the playoffs without RG3 and I was right. Luckily, I had a bye in week 1, and even more luckily, my opponent had a pretty terrible game in week 2. Into the finals, I really felt like I had no hope, and was correct. I got beat pretty handily early in the weekend and was able to concede before the evening games.
A good year since we award the regular season champion and 2nd place gets a nice chunk too.
Heading into next year, I’ve got some pretty good keeper options. They are listed below along with the round I’d be taking them in, their value based on where mock drafts say they’ll go, and my notes. I’m leaning a certain way already, but could be swayed.
Arian Foster (2nd, +1) – After three years, might it be time to let him go? Only a +1 round value. Then again, having an elite guy is never a bad thing. I think this pick depends on where my pick is in the 1st round.
RG3 (3rd, 0) – Until shit hit the fan, this was nearly a no-brainer. Now? Still a no-brainer, but in the other direction. Thanks for the run, Bob, but I don’t mess around with injuries.
Rob Gronkowski (4th, +2) – Another #1 guy at his position, but the guy broke his arm TWICE this year. I’m sure he’ll be back in full force, but is his value really worth a keeper and 4th round spot? Given his points over other TEs, I think he probably is.
Alfred Morris (5th, +3) – This was also a no-brainer until RG3 went down. The guy is talented, for sure, but I think he has Bob to thank for a lot of that. Without Bob hot-stepping all over the place, AM has far fewer holes. I seem to be undervaluing him (based on all the mocks I’ve seen) and will likely have to go with him to be a good homer.
Russell Wilson (5th, +1) – He’s good, but not yet elite, and the drop-off on QB talent isn’t huge.
Cecil Shorts (5th, 0) – Looks to be one of the top wideouts next year, but very volatile given his team’s terrible offense.
Michael Crabtree (5th, +1) – I’ve never liked this guy much as he’s never lived up to the hype. That changed this year, but I still don’t trust him. Maybe today will change my mind?
Looking at values, my choices are clear. Sure, it sounds great to get Arian Foster in the 2nd round, but looking at the bigger picture, it should be all about value. Ungh. Help!
Comments
RG3 + Foster if you draft late.
If you draft early, swap Foster for Wilson.
So if I draft early take two QBs? You’re not convincing me your input was thought heavily upon.
You have to take RG3. I can get a better RB with a high draft pick so your second pick should be the best player on the board. In my opinion, that’s Wilson… especially since RG3 is a big unknown. None of this other players impress me and even if RG3 is healthy, you have prime trade bait at a 5th round bargain.
I have to take a guy who just got his knee entirely rebuilt? That’s silly talk. Even when he was healthy he may not have been a first round pick. Definitely too early to have any idea if he should be kept or not.
I’m a value guy. I think that number tells the whole story of what a steal a guy is. At +2 and +3, Gronk and Alfred are my picks for now. That’s a hell of a start to a team and who knows who I’ll get in rounds 1-3 to supplement them. Could be disgusting.
I do think Wilson has huge upside, but again, the drop-off in QB productivity is slow. He’s not a top-5 guy so he’s lumped in with the rest of them (Carson Palmer averaged more per week and he was on the wire all season).